444 Craps System
2021年4月13日Register here: http://gg.gg/p10k3
Beethoven9th
Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on ’luck’ or a method?
Craps 444 System, largest slot machine ever recorded, hoodsport wa casino, mobile casino no deposit bonus usa. Testing various Craps dice sets, throwing techniques and betting styles and how they react on my tabletop Craps set up. Thank you for Watching!Credits:Starin. Casino.org is the world’s leading independent Netent Craps online gaming authority, providing trusted online casino news, guides, reviews and information since 1995. Casino bonuses and incentives keep players coming back to their favourite site.*facepalm*Uh...craps is a game of 100% chance. No ’method’ is going to change that.Fighting BS one post at a time!AxiomOfChoice
Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on ’luck’ or a method? At least method gambling gives you a better chance IMHO.What do you mean by ’a better chance’? A better chance to do what?There are certainly systems that give you a better chance of winning for a session. Martingale does this. The downside is that you are risking a lot more than you stand to win. So your wins are common and small, and your losses are rare and big. If you want to win 90% of the time, I can give you a system to do that, so long as you’re happy with your losses being much, much larger than your wins.Beethoven’s ’system’ of making the lowest house edge bets gives him a ’better chance’ in that he will lose less money in the long term.7craps
Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on ’luck’ or a method? what about a ’lucky method’Quote: ROBROY01
At least method gambling gives you a better chance IMHO.a better chance of ???what?winning more often?playing longer with same bankrollplaying longer and winning more often, more than losing?gaining more in comps?winning more and losing less?losing more and winning less?when you lose you lose BIG?the best chances of coming out ahead after X number of bets made?state what you are really afterthen that can be looked at more closely’method gambling’that is the Professor’s term he also usesROBROY01I agree! Al sounds like a blow-hard and there are a helluva LOT of red flags about him. However, since his free systems (especially 444) have such a good short-term expectation, then one can only assume that his better systems have better odds. Of course, that is only an assumption, and you know the old saying about ’assuming’! ;) LOL I’m just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?Beethoven9th
What do you mean by ’a better chance’? A better chance to do what?Quote: 7craps
a better chance of ???what?+1
I’m just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?Familiar with what? You keep using the word ’better’. What exactly are you talking about??Fighting BS one post at a time!ROBROY01
what about a ’lucky method’a better chance of ???what?winning more often?playing longer with same bankrollplaying longer and winning more often, more than losing?gaining more in comps?winning more and losing less?losing more and winning less?when you lose you lose BIG?the best chances of coming out ahead after X number of bets made?state what you are really afterthen that can be looked at more closely’method gambling’that is the Professor’s term he also uses7craps, in Al’s 444 video, (while playing one of his progressed levels after a loss) a 4:1 chance of winning the very next roll after establishing your Point and being able to drop back to Level One. IMO adding the Field bet and bring your advantage up from 4:1 to 5:1, to me, is a much better chance of winning that bet. Understand now?Method gambling vs. System gambling...to me it’s all the same. Is there a diff between a method and a system? Seems like I heard a long time ago that there was. I think it’s splitting hairs for the average Punter.7craps
I’m just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?Not me.Then for $500 you will know.most piss away $500 every year. some every month.and you may have way more fun playing the Professor’s wayfor as long as your bankroll laststhan the boring, IMO, way the Wizard says to play Craps.Line bets and max odds. yukGood Luckwinsome johnny (not Win some johnny)ROBROY01
+1Familiar with what? You keep using the word ’better’. What exactly are you talking about??Read the previous posts from the beginning. Your answer is there on more than one occasion. :)Beethoven9th
Read the previous posts from the beginning. Your answer is there on more than one occasion. :)Unfortunately, no one else knows what you’re talking about either. You need to define ’better’ for us.Quote: AxiomOfChoice
What do you mean by ’a better chance’? A better chance to do what?
a better chance of ???what?Quote: Beethoven9th
Familiar with what? You keep using the word ’better’. What exactly are you talking about??ROBROY01
Unfortunately, no one else knows what you’re talking about either. You need to define ’better’ for us.*Sighs* As I previously stated, Al says he has these ’better’ systems of play than the free ’444 System’ we have been discussing in this thread. He calls them ’Intermediate’, which would lose once every 24 hrs. and ’Advanced’, which would lose once every 72 hrs.If other people don’t know what I am talking about either, then ’they’ haven’t expressed it. Look again! It’s there! Keep up! :)
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Thread Rating: mustangsallyan introductionAl ’The Professor’ Kaufman’I’m the best (gambler) there is’’I have what everybody wants. How to win in the casinos’also: stop losing at the casinosThe Gambling ProfessorThe Gambling Professor fromhttp://www.thegamblingprofessor.com/Now from the video collection on YouTube (yeah! now has transcriptions)Blackjack systemQ: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?Answer Al: It’s virtually impossible.Professor Al also says this:11:05Now remember it’s possible to lose 8 hands in a rowit doesn’t happen that oftenBut you have to be there when it happensand remember we are cutting down the oddsbecause it has to happen the second you get to the tableQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?and are they different playing at one table or over ten tables?I like this one. I get about 1 in 161 tables. 1 / 0.53^8so we win about $12 (high) on average per table 160 times and lose $2380 one time.$1920 + (-$2380) = a net loss on averagewill comps make up for this? Comps playing an average 2.07 hands per table?what casino now?if our average win per table increases to $15, that = a profit of $2400 ($15*160)about equals our expected (average) one loss at $2380.Now to get a $15 average win, means we have to bet more and deviate from the Professor’s unit betting chart.I think The Professor needs to go back to the drawing (white) boardLooking at the binomial probability distribution will help out.The chance of NO tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.5856%The chance of just ONE table losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.9025%Wow! see that. the same!but they do not add up to 100%.The chance of TWO or MORE tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables is 26.5119%better than 1 in 4The Professor’s method IS gambling!more (that do not want to watch the video)0:24’HiI’m Al ’The Gambling Professor’I reside here in Las Vegas because I gamble for a living.I’m probably the best there is.and I’m going to make you a winner in the casino todayIF you listen to my rules.’He is a Method Gambler.From the video:’We are looking to earn money.you need horrific bad luck to lose’2:44 has the BJ Basic Strategy chartBJ bankroll $2380starting bet $5goal is to win 1 hand, before losing 8 in a row,10 times for about $100 earned winnings.after the first win, move on to another table.No splitting, never double downs.Play 10 tables you stoprepeat this 5 times a dayProgression after each loss go to the next level.on a win start back at $55,15,35,75,150,300,600,1200works for Craps too!19:00but what are the odds of him sitting downthe first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?It’s virtually impossible.at 20:40Dealer misplays his hand.a J showing. did not peek for an Ace and hit players hand with a 9That 9 belongs in the very next hand.That next hand would have pushed instead of a win.22:10’Most of the time you are going to win between the 2nd and 3rd hand.’Sally saysThis statement is also an error. Everyone should know the player wins about 47% of the hands (not counting pushes)right after the last win. (the relative frequency from a frequency table)To win on the 2nd or 3rd hand is only about 38% chanceIt is about 72% of hands won happen on the 1st and the 2nd hand playedin the video, 15 hands did just that for a 75% hit rate.Just watching the two tables played in the video, the player won 12 out of 20 hands on the very first hand, that is 60% for this small sample size.Back to Al’This is a piece of cake.You can make a living.You can make $500 a day with a $2380 bankroll’Looks like The Professor shows no math but speaks of it and his experiences gambling.Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?SallyQuestions are againQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?AcesAndEights
Questions are againQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?I don’t know the answer to #2, but the answer to #1 is hell no, and #3 would be hilarious but not worth the Wizard’s time.Bonus Question #4: is this guy just another asshat systems seller who happens to look more professional?DING DING DING’So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust.’ -ontariodealerTomspurWhat tickles my pickle is (if the background is found to be authentic) he films inside a convention space of some or the other casino.Did he get permission to film such a spot inside a casino? What casino would give a charletan such as this the opportunity to sell his wares using a casino facility?Why does he not quote the actual math involved? If someone asks you what the odds are of losing 8 hands in a row, should you not be able to present that in a factual way for everyone to understand?I must admit I didn’t watch the video and I have absolutely NO intention of doing so either. This dude is high off his ass is my final summation.Thanks“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston ChurchillIbeatyouracesdeletedkewljDo we even know if this fella is still living? The video appears quite old. Cars were driving down Fremont Street between The Fremont, The Mint And Golden Nugget. Before my time in Vegas, but Wikipedia says the Mint closed in 88, about the time I was heading off to kindergarden. :-)PerditionHe put this up as of 3 months agoCraps lessonSeems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.He has another one where he bet the pass/don’t pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ. If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn’t you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that’s why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.bahdbwoyexcept most $5 table limits are $500? i have not been to that many diff casinos so just from what i have seen..i have done this progression on craps after 1 pass made and have bust at $300 ;) (so 7 made mostly naturals).AcesAndEights
He put this up as of 3 months agoCraps lessonSeems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.He has another one where he bet the pass/don’t pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ. If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn’t you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that’s why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.Any casino would welcome this guy’s action. Unless the ’secret sauce’ in his system is actually cheating (capping/pinching etc.), he would be a gold mine for the casinos and they would be stupid to back him off.There’s an old quote...something about casinos sending a limo to the airport for anyone with a ’system.’’So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust.’ -ontariodealerIbeatyouracesdeletedMission146
Questions are againQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?Question 1: I agree that The Professor is a clown. His system is just a four-step +1 Grand Martingale that fades into a regular Martingale on the fifth step. The aspect of that system that really confuses me is, ’Why not just continue to double and add one base unit?’ You’re already down that amount of money on a system base of $5 in the first place, you’re already risking (up to) $2,380, so why not continue to increase the unit and risk a little more?Question 2: According to the Wizard:http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/The probability of a win, discluding pushes, is .4636 which makes the probability of a loss .5364. Those probabilities aren’t going to be exactly right because Professor Clown refuses to double or split hands. The refusal to split is going to increase his overall probability of losing a hand, while the refusal to double is actually going to INCREASE his probability of winning a hand in many situations. For example, if you hit a 9 or 10 against a dealer showing 8, then many of those hits are going to result in a total less than seventeen, in which event, BS would then suggest that the player take another hit. The EV of NOT doubling will be worse, but the actual win rate will be better.I’m just not sure how this offsets, so I’m going to use the Wizard’s numbers assuming proper Basic Strategy.The overall probability of losing eight in a row (assuming proper BS): (.5364)^8 = 0.00685346427756715 = 1/0.00685346427756715 = 1 in 145.912AND:444 Craps SystemThis is a very rough approximation of what will happen:Step 1: WIN (Wins $5) = .4636 * 5 = 2.318Step 2: LOSS/WIN (Wins $10) = (.5364 * .4636) * 10 = 2.4867504Step 3: LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $15) = (.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 15 = 2.0008393718399997Step 4: LOSS/LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $20) = ((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 20 = 1.431000318739968Step 5-8 (Step 8 WIN): (All will win $20)((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 20 = 0.7675885709721187((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 20 = 0.41173450946944445((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 20 = 0.22085439087941003((.5364)^7 * .4636) * 20 = 0.11846629526771554STEP 8 LOSS:(.5364)^8 * (-2380) = -16.311244980609817OVERALL ER: 2.318 + 2.4867504 + 2.0008393718399997 + 1.431000318739968 + 0.7675885709721187 + 0.41173450946944445 + 0.22085439087941003 + 0.11846629526771554 -16.311244980609817 = -6.556011123441159Do I want to determine the average total bet?Not really, but I guess I will.(.4636 * 5) = 2.318(.5364 * .4636) * 20 = 4.9735008(.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 55 = 7.336411030079999((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 130 = 9.301502071809793444 Craps System Free((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 280 = 10.746239993609663((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 580 = 11.94030077461389((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 1180 = 13.030409061885192(WIN OR LOSE) (.5364)^7 * 2380 = 30.4087341174679652.318 + 4.9735008 + 7.336411030079999 + 9.301502071809793 + 10.746239993609663 + 11.94030077481389 + 13.030409061885192 + 30.408734117467965 = 90.05509784966651***DISCLAIMER***-The effects of not splitting or doubling are reasonably well-incorporated into the Expected Loss because the Win/Loss rate accounts for perfect Basic Strategy, but perfect Basic Strategy would alter the bet amounts at each level (as the possibility of a Split or Double would necessarily increase the average bet amount, per level) so I think my formula approximates not splitting/doubling well-enough for the analysis of what will be a losing system anyway.-The second disclaimer is that I did not include the possibility of being dealt a winning Natural into the calculations. While this results in inexact numbers with respect to the Expected Loss value (though it does not change the average bet) there’s no indication that The Professor’s method relies upon the player being dealt a Natural in any way to work, and in most cases, the player will either win or lose eight in a row without a Natural being involved at all.-If anyone wants to figure out the Expected Loss of each run of the system factoring in Naturals, (I don’t) then determine the probability of a winning Natural and subtract same from the overall probability of winning. Multiply the amount to be won (per level) by the overall probability of winning by any means other than a winning Natural and add the result of the amount to be won with a winning Natural multiplied by the probability of a winning Natural.Sorry, I’m not doing it. Too labor intensive for what is guaranteed to be a losing system (not to mention a horrible way to play) anyway.QUESTION 3:No, why should he? The Professor has clearly not visited the Blackjack page of www.wizardofodds.com, or he would not be playing a system in which the player refuses to Double/Split to begin with.Vultures can’t be choosers.
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Beethoven9th
Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on ’luck’ or a method?
Craps 444 System, largest slot machine ever recorded, hoodsport wa casino, mobile casino no deposit bonus usa. Testing various Craps dice sets, throwing techniques and betting styles and how they react on my tabletop Craps set up. Thank you for Watching!Credits:Starin. Casino.org is the world’s leading independent Netent Craps online gaming authority, providing trusted online casino news, guides, reviews and information since 1995. Casino bonuses and incentives keep players coming back to their favourite site.*facepalm*Uh...craps is a game of 100% chance. No ’method’ is going to change that.Fighting BS one post at a time!AxiomOfChoice
Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on ’luck’ or a method? At least method gambling gives you a better chance IMHO.What do you mean by ’a better chance’? A better chance to do what?There are certainly systems that give you a better chance of winning for a session. Martingale does this. The downside is that you are risking a lot more than you stand to win. So your wins are common and small, and your losses are rare and big. If you want to win 90% of the time, I can give you a system to do that, so long as you’re happy with your losses being much, much larger than your wins.Beethoven’s ’system’ of making the lowest house edge bets gives him a ’better chance’ in that he will lose less money in the long term.7craps
Beethoven, are you the type of gambler who would rather rely on ’luck’ or a method? what about a ’lucky method’Quote: ROBROY01
At least method gambling gives you a better chance IMHO.a better chance of ???what?winning more often?playing longer with same bankrollplaying longer and winning more often, more than losing?gaining more in comps?winning more and losing less?losing more and winning less?when you lose you lose BIG?the best chances of coming out ahead after X number of bets made?state what you are really afterthen that can be looked at more closely’method gambling’that is the Professor’s term he also usesROBROY01I agree! Al sounds like a blow-hard and there are a helluva LOT of red flags about him. However, since his free systems (especially 444) have such a good short-term expectation, then one can only assume that his better systems have better odds. Of course, that is only an assumption, and you know the old saying about ’assuming’! ;) LOL I’m just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?Beethoven9th
What do you mean by ’a better chance’? A better chance to do what?Quote: 7craps
a better chance of ???what?+1
I’m just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?Familiar with what? You keep using the word ’better’. What exactly are you talking about??Fighting BS one post at a time!ROBROY01
what about a ’lucky method’a better chance of ???what?winning more often?playing longer with same bankrollplaying longer and winning more often, more than losing?gaining more in comps?winning more and losing less?losing more and winning less?when you lose you lose BIG?the best chances of coming out ahead after X number of bets made?state what you are really afterthen that can be looked at more closely’method gambling’that is the Professor’s term he also uses7craps, in Al’s 444 video, (while playing one of his progressed levels after a loss) a 4:1 chance of winning the very next roll after establishing your Point and being able to drop back to Level One. IMO adding the Field bet and bring your advantage up from 4:1 to 5:1, to me, is a much better chance of winning that bet. Understand now?Method gambling vs. System gambling...to me it’s all the same. Is there a diff between a method and a system? Seems like I heard a long time ago that there was. I think it’s splitting hairs for the average Punter.7craps
I’m just curious what those better systems are all about. Sounds like no one here is familiar with them?Not me.Then for $500 you will know.most piss away $500 every year. some every month.and you may have way more fun playing the Professor’s wayfor as long as your bankroll laststhan the boring, IMO, way the Wizard says to play Craps.Line bets and max odds. yukGood Luckwinsome johnny (not Win some johnny)ROBROY01
+1Familiar with what? You keep using the word ’better’. What exactly are you talking about??Read the previous posts from the beginning. Your answer is there on more than one occasion. :)Beethoven9th
Read the previous posts from the beginning. Your answer is there on more than one occasion. :)Unfortunately, no one else knows what you’re talking about either. You need to define ’better’ for us.Quote: AxiomOfChoice
What do you mean by ’a better chance’? A better chance to do what?
a better chance of ???what?Quote: Beethoven9th
Familiar with what? You keep using the word ’better’. What exactly are you talking about??ROBROY01
Unfortunately, no one else knows what you’re talking about either. You need to define ’better’ for us.*Sighs* As I previously stated, Al says he has these ’better’ systems of play than the free ’444 System’ we have been discussing in this thread. He calls them ’Intermediate’, which would lose once every 24 hrs. and ’Advanced’, which would lose once every 72 hrs.If other people don’t know what I am talking about either, then ’they’ haven’t expressed it. Look again! It’s there! Keep up! :)
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Thread Rating: mustangsallyan introductionAl ’The Professor’ Kaufman’I’m the best (gambler) there is’’I have what everybody wants. How to win in the casinos’also: stop losing at the casinosThe Gambling ProfessorThe Gambling Professor fromhttp://www.thegamblingprofessor.com/Now from the video collection on YouTube (yeah! now has transcriptions)Blackjack systemQ: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?Answer Al: It’s virtually impossible.Professor Al also says this:11:05Now remember it’s possible to lose 8 hands in a rowit doesn’t happen that oftenBut you have to be there when it happensand remember we are cutting down the oddsbecause it has to happen the second you get to the tableQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?and are they different playing at one table or over ten tables?I like this one. I get about 1 in 161 tables. 1 / 0.53^8so we win about $12 (high) on average per table 160 times and lose $2380 one time.$1920 + (-$2380) = a net loss on averagewill comps make up for this? Comps playing an average 2.07 hands per table?what casino now?if our average win per table increases to $15, that = a profit of $2400 ($15*160)about equals our expected (average) one loss at $2380.Now to get a $15 average win, means we have to bet more and deviate from the Professor’s unit betting chart.I think The Professor needs to go back to the drawing (white) boardLooking at the binomial probability distribution will help out.The chance of NO tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.5856%The chance of just ONE table losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.9025%Wow! see that. the same!but they do not add up to 100%.The chance of TWO or MORE tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables is 26.5119%better than 1 in 4The Professor’s method IS gambling!more (that do not want to watch the video)0:24’HiI’m Al ’The Gambling Professor’I reside here in Las Vegas because I gamble for a living.I’m probably the best there is.and I’m going to make you a winner in the casino todayIF you listen to my rules.’He is a Method Gambler.From the video:’We are looking to earn money.you need horrific bad luck to lose’2:44 has the BJ Basic Strategy chartBJ bankroll $2380starting bet $5goal is to win 1 hand, before losing 8 in a row,10 times for about $100 earned winnings.after the first win, move on to another table.No splitting, never double downs.Play 10 tables you stoprepeat this 5 times a dayProgression after each loss go to the next level.on a win start back at $55,15,35,75,150,300,600,1200works for Craps too!19:00but what are the odds of him sitting downthe first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?It’s virtually impossible.at 20:40Dealer misplays his hand.a J showing. did not peek for an Ace and hit players hand with a 9That 9 belongs in the very next hand.That next hand would have pushed instead of a win.22:10’Most of the time you are going to win between the 2nd and 3rd hand.’Sally saysThis statement is also an error. Everyone should know the player wins about 47% of the hands (not counting pushes)right after the last win. (the relative frequency from a frequency table)To win on the 2nd or 3rd hand is only about 38% chanceIt is about 72% of hands won happen on the 1st and the 2nd hand playedin the video, 15 hands did just that for a 75% hit rate.Just watching the two tables played in the video, the player won 12 out of 20 hands on the very first hand, that is 60% for this small sample size.Back to Al’This is a piece of cake.You can make a living.You can make $500 a day with a $2380 bankroll’Looks like The Professor shows no math but speaks of it and his experiences gambling.Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?SallyQuestions are againQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?AcesAndEights
Questions are againQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?I don’t know the answer to #2, but the answer to #1 is hell no, and #3 would be hilarious but not worth the Wizard’s time.Bonus Question #4: is this guy just another asshat systems seller who happens to look more professional?DING DING DING’So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust.’ -ontariodealerTomspurWhat tickles my pickle is (if the background is found to be authentic) he films inside a convention space of some or the other casino.Did he get permission to film such a spot inside a casino? What casino would give a charletan such as this the opportunity to sell his wares using a casino facility?Why does he not quote the actual math involved? If someone asks you what the odds are of losing 8 hands in a row, should you not be able to present that in a factual way for everyone to understand?I must admit I didn’t watch the video and I have absolutely NO intention of doing so either. This dude is high off his ass is my final summation.Thanks“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston ChurchillIbeatyouracesdeletedkewljDo we even know if this fella is still living? The video appears quite old. Cars were driving down Fremont Street between The Fremont, The Mint And Golden Nugget. Before my time in Vegas, but Wikipedia says the Mint closed in 88, about the time I was heading off to kindergarden. :-)PerditionHe put this up as of 3 months agoCraps lessonSeems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.He has another one where he bet the pass/don’t pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ. If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn’t you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that’s why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.bahdbwoyexcept most $5 table limits are $500? i have not been to that many diff casinos so just from what i have seen..i have done this progression on craps after 1 pass made and have bust at $300 ;) (so 7 made mostly naturals).AcesAndEights
He put this up as of 3 months agoCraps lessonSeems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.He has another one where he bet the pass/don’t pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ. If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn’t you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that’s why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.Any casino would welcome this guy’s action. Unless the ’secret sauce’ in his system is actually cheating (capping/pinching etc.), he would be a gold mine for the casinos and they would be stupid to back him off.There’s an old quote...something about casinos sending a limo to the airport for anyone with a ’system.’’So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust.’ -ontariodealerIbeatyouracesdeletedMission146
Questions are againQuestion #1: agree with The Professor?Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?Question 1: I agree that The Professor is a clown. His system is just a four-step +1 Grand Martingale that fades into a regular Martingale on the fifth step. The aspect of that system that really confuses me is, ’Why not just continue to double and add one base unit?’ You’re already down that amount of money on a system base of $5 in the first place, you’re already risking (up to) $2,380, so why not continue to increase the unit and risk a little more?Question 2: According to the Wizard:http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/The probability of a win, discluding pushes, is .4636 which makes the probability of a loss .5364. Those probabilities aren’t going to be exactly right because Professor Clown refuses to double or split hands. The refusal to split is going to increase his overall probability of losing a hand, while the refusal to double is actually going to INCREASE his probability of winning a hand in many situations. For example, if you hit a 9 or 10 against a dealer showing 8, then many of those hits are going to result in a total less than seventeen, in which event, BS would then suggest that the player take another hit. The EV of NOT doubling will be worse, but the actual win rate will be better.I’m just not sure how this offsets, so I’m going to use the Wizard’s numbers assuming proper Basic Strategy.The overall probability of losing eight in a row (assuming proper BS): (.5364)^8 = 0.00685346427756715 = 1/0.00685346427756715 = 1 in 145.912AND:444 Craps SystemThis is a very rough approximation of what will happen:Step 1: WIN (Wins $5) = .4636 * 5 = 2.318Step 2: LOSS/WIN (Wins $10) = (.5364 * .4636) * 10 = 2.4867504Step 3: LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $15) = (.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 15 = 2.0008393718399997Step 4: LOSS/LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $20) = ((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 20 = 1.431000318739968Step 5-8 (Step 8 WIN): (All will win $20)((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 20 = 0.7675885709721187((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 20 = 0.41173450946944445((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 20 = 0.22085439087941003((.5364)^7 * .4636) * 20 = 0.11846629526771554STEP 8 LOSS:(.5364)^8 * (-2380) = -16.311244980609817OVERALL ER: 2.318 + 2.4867504 + 2.0008393718399997 + 1.431000318739968 + 0.7675885709721187 + 0.41173450946944445 + 0.22085439087941003 + 0.11846629526771554 -16.311244980609817 = -6.556011123441159Do I want to determine the average total bet?Not really, but I guess I will.(.4636 * 5) = 2.318(.5364 * .4636) * 20 = 4.9735008(.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 55 = 7.336411030079999((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 130 = 9.301502071809793444 Craps System Free((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 280 = 10.746239993609663((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 580 = 11.94030077461389((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 1180 = 13.030409061885192(WIN OR LOSE) (.5364)^7 * 2380 = 30.4087341174679652.318 + 4.9735008 + 7.336411030079999 + 9.301502071809793 + 10.746239993609663 + 11.94030077481389 + 13.030409061885192 + 30.408734117467965 = 90.05509784966651***DISCLAIMER***-The effects of not splitting or doubling are reasonably well-incorporated into the Expected Loss because the Win/Loss rate accounts for perfect Basic Strategy, but perfect Basic Strategy would alter the bet amounts at each level (as the possibility of a Split or Double would necessarily increase the average bet amount, per level) so I think my formula approximates not splitting/doubling well-enough for the analysis of what will be a losing system anyway.-The second disclaimer is that I did not include the possibility of being dealt a winning Natural into the calculations. While this results in inexact numbers with respect to the Expected Loss value (though it does not change the average bet) there’s no indication that The Professor’s method relies upon the player being dealt a Natural in any way to work, and in most cases, the player will either win or lose eight in a row without a Natural being involved at all.-If anyone wants to figure out the Expected Loss of each run of the system factoring in Naturals, (I don’t) then determine the probability of a winning Natural and subtract same from the overall probability of winning. Multiply the amount to be won (per level) by the overall probability of winning by any means other than a winning Natural and add the result of the amount to be won with a winning Natural multiplied by the probability of a winning Natural.Sorry, I’m not doing it. Too labor intensive for what is guaranteed to be a losing system (not to mention a horrible way to play) anyway.QUESTION 3:No, why should he? The Professor has clearly not visited the Blackjack page of www.wizardofodds.com, or he would not be playing a system in which the player refuses to Double/Split to begin with.Vultures can’t be choosers.
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